The all wheat number included the first survey-based durum and other spring wheat forecasts for the season, as well as revised winter wheat estimates.
Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 617 million bus, up four percent from 595 million bus in 2014. The total included hard red spring wheat production forecast at 573 million bus, up 3% from 2014. Durum production was forecast at 75.5 million bus, up 42 percent from 53 million bus in 2014.
Winter wheat production was estimated at 1,455.5 million bus, down three percent from the U.S.D.A.’s June estimate of 1,505 million bus, up six percent from 1,378 million bus in 2014 and below the trade average of 1,485 million bus. The winter wheat estimate included hard red production at 866 million bus, down two percent from 887 million bus in June, soft red at 393 million bus, down five percent from 414 million bus in June and white at 196 million bus, down 4% from 204 million bus in June.
In its July 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S.D.A. projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2016, at 842 million bus, up three percent from 814 million bus as the June projection and compared with 753 million bus on June 1, 2015. The U.S.D.A. 2016 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 855 million bus.
Wheat-by-class carryover on June 1, 2016, was projected at 364 million bu for hard red winter, compared with 294 million bus on June 1, 2015; at 224 million bus for hard red spring, compared with 213 million bus; at 175 million bus for soft red winter, compared with 153 million bus; at 54 million bus for white wheat, compared with 67 million bus; and at 23 million bus for durum, compared with 26 million bus.