U.S.D.A. makes no changes in forecasts
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 9 left unchanged its 2015-16 supply-and-demand balance sheets for all-wheat and corn while making only minor adjustments to its soybean supply-and-use forecasts. Given the lack of surprise, futures markets largely shrugged off the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2016, at 966 million bus, unchanged from the February projection and up 214 million bus, or 28%, from 752 million bus in 2015. If the forecast is realized, the 2016 wheat carryover would be the largest since 976 million bus in 2010.
All supply-side forecasts for wheat in 2015-16 were unchanged with a carry-in of 752 million bus, 2015 production at 2,052 million bus, up 26 million bus from 2014, and 2015-16 imports at 120 million bus, down 29 million bus from 2014-15. All-wheat supply for 2015-16 was forecast at 2,924 million bus, up 6% from 2,766 million bus in 2014-15 but down 3% from 3,026 million bus in 2013-14.
Wheat disappearance in 2015-16 was forecast unchanged from February at 1,958 million bus, down 56 million bus from 2014-15 and down 20% from 2,436 million bus in 2013-14.
Food use of wheat in 2015-16 was forecast at a record 967 million bus, up 9 million bus from 2014-15. Seed use of wheat was forecast at 66 million bus, down 13 million bus from 2014-15. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2015-16 was forecast at 150 million bus, up 28 million bus from 2014-15 but down 34% from 228 million bus in 2013-14.
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2015-16 wheat exports at 775 million bus, unchanged from the February projection, down 79 million bus from 2014-15 and the lowest since 610 million bus in 1971-72, the year before the U.S.-Soviet wheat deal that pushed U.S. wheat exports above 1 billion bus for the first time in history.
The only adjustments in supply-and-demand forecasts by class were in hard red winter wheat and hard red spring wheat exports. The U.S.D.A. raised its forecast for hard red winter wheat exports in 2015-16 by 10 million bus, to 230 million bus, while lowering its forecast for hard red spring wheat exports by 10 million bus, to 245 million bus. As a result, the hard red winter wheat 2016 carryover was lowered 10 million bus, to 419 million bus, while the hard red spring wheat carryover was raised 10 million bus, to 288 million bus. There were no other changes in 2015-16 forecasts by wheat class. The 2016 forecast carryover of soft red winter wheat remained 170 million bus; the white wheat carryover forecast remained 55 million bus, and the durum carryover remained 34 million bus.
The U.S.D.A.’s forecast for the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2016, was unchanged from February at 1,837 million bus, up 6% from 1,731 million bus in 2015. It would be the largest corn carryover since 1,967 million bus in 2006. The U.S.D.A. forecast the corn supply in 2015-16 at 15,382 million bus, down 97 million bus from 2014-15. Domestic disappearance of corn in 2015-16 was forecast at 11,895 million bus (11,883 million bus in 2014-15) including feed and residual use at 5,300 million bus (5,324 million bus in 2014-15) and food, seed and industrial use at 6,595 million bus (6,560 million bus). Included in the latter category was corn use for ethanol production, which was forecast at 5,225 million bus (5,200 million bus in 2014-15).
U.S. corn exports in 2015-16 were forecast at 1,650 million bus, down 11% from 1,864 million bus in 2014-15.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2016, at 460 million bus, up 10 million bus from the February outlook and up 269 million bus from 191 million bus in 2015. If the forecast is realized, the 2016 soybean carryover would be the largest since 536 million bus in 1986.
The U.S.D.A. lowered its 2015 soybean production estimate by 1 million bus, to a record 3,929 million bus. The 2015-16 soybean supply was forecast unchanged at 4,150 million bus. The 2015-16 soybean crush was forecast at 1,870 million bus, down 10 million from the February projection and down 3 million bus from 2014-15. Soybean exports in 2015-16 were forecast at 1,690 million bus, down 153 million bus from 1,843 million bus in 2014-15.