World wheat ending stocks forecast to increase

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast 2015-16 global ending stocks of wheat at 203.32 million tonnes, up 2.35 million tonnes from 200.97 million tonnes estimated for 2014-15 crop. It was the department’s initial world wheat ending stocks projection for 2015-16. The forecast was above the average of pre-report trade projections at 194.2 million tonnes.

World wheat production for 2015-16 was projected at 718.93 million tonnes compared with a record 726.45 million tonnes estimated for 2014-15. If the forecast is realized, world wheat production in 2015-16 would be the second highest on record. While U.S. wheat production was forecast to increase 1.68 million tonnes from 2014, wheat production outside the United States in 2015-16 was forecast to fall 9.2 million tonnes from the previous year “with reductions for the European Union, India, Russia and Ukraine more than offsetting increases for China, Turkey, Morocco, Australia, Iran and Syria,” the U.S.D.A. said.

World wheat consumption for 2015-16 was projected at 716.59 million tonnes compared with a forecast 715.46 million tonnes in 2014-15. Exports were projected to be lower at 156.95 million tonnes in 2015-16 compared with 163.7 million tonnes estimated for 2014-15.

“Global import demand for 2015-16 is lower with the largest reductions coming from Turkey, Iran, Morocco, and Syria all on greatly improved crop prospects,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Exports are lower for Canada, India, the E.U., Russia and Ukraine but higher for Argentina and Australia.”

World corn ending stocks in 2015-16 were projected at 191.94 million tonnes for 2015-16 compared with 192.5 million tonnes as forecast for 2014-15. The 2015-16 corn ending stocks projection was well above the average trade estimate of 185.4 million tonnes.

World corn production in 2015-16 was forecast at 989.83 million tonnes, down 6.29 million tonnes from 996.12 million tonnes in 2014-15.

Global corn consumption in 2015-16 was projected at 990.4 million tonnes compared with 977.42 million tonnes as forecast for 2014-15.

“Global corn consumption for 2015-16 is projected at a record 990.4 million tonnes, 13 million tonnes higher than in 2014-15, with notable increases for China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Canada, India, Indonesia, Iran and Mexico,” the U.S.D.A. said.

World soybean ending stocks in 2015-16 were projected at 96.22 million tonnes, significantly higher than 85.54 million tonnes as forecast for 2014-15, the U.S.D.A. said.  The projection was above the average trade estimate of 95 million tonnes. World production of soybeans was forecast at 317.3 million tonnes in 2015-16, slightly above the 2014-15 estimate of 317.25 million tonnes.

The 2015-16 projection for Brazil’s soybean production was 97 million tonnes, up from 94.5 million tonnes estimated in 2014-15. For Argentina, 2015-16 production was forecast at 57 million tonnes, down from 58.5 million tonnes estimated for 2014-15.

World 2015-16 soybean meal ending stocks were forecast at 11.06 million tonnes compared with 11.44 million tonnes estimated for 2014-15. World production was projected at 209.8 million tonnes compared with 200.92 million tonnes estimated for 2014-15, the U.S.D.A. said.

World rice ending stocks for 2015-16 were projected at 91.54 million tonnes, down from 98.41 million tonnes estimated for 2014-15, the U.S.D.A. said.